When I was a young man I went to real estate school, just for the fun of it.  Passed the exam but never activated the license.  One thing I learned from the instructor -- this was back before they started "teaching to the book" and leaving out any practical advice -- is that real estate agents spend their earnings three times.  Once when they get the listing, once when they get the sales contract, and once when the deal closes.

If an agent made $200K in 2024, it may be his last good year for a while.  They have changed the rules for that occupation, and commissions are dropping faster than sales.  So I wouldn't worry too much about the first quarterly payment for 2025.  I doubt there's enough left to cover most of 2024 tax.