Do you have estimates setup for 2023?

If you want the entire refund applied, you need to select either 6=Apply entire refund, estimates if necessary or 7=Apply entire refund, no estimates for Apply overpayment to 2023.  Other options will refund any excess if the required ES-tax payment is less.

The system will not trigger ES-tax if your client falls below the threshold.  In case ES-tax is not triggered for whatever reason, check that you selected one of the relevant options on the line Estimate options (Click on arrow to select from list) [Override].