Another Slow Start To Tax Season

[BobKamman]

Republicans were hoping tax season would begin with a bang, but something curious is happening: The number of people filing is down.

The IRS says it has collected about 51.5 million returns so far this year, which is 1.7 percent fewer than last year. That’s not a big decline, but it comes on the heels of a similar decrease last year (3 percent) and the year before that (1.7 percent).

And the cumulative effect is significant. Though the opening of tax season is seen as especially busy, as people clamor for refunds, the IRS so far has seen about eight million fewer returns than it did during the same period in the filing season before the pandemic.

It’s a little-noticed change that has puzzled experts — though there are lots of theories, from people being confused about President Donald Trump’s new tax provisions to more people procrastinating because they owe the IRS.

Some wonder too if it’s a sign that undocumented immigrants have stopped filing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/13/tax-season-off-to-slow-start-again-despite-lure-of-bigger-r... 

[TaxGuyBill]

The government had retroactive changes with reduced IRS staff so it makes sense that things are slow because there have been many things that have been delayed.

Plus they deported a number of taxpayers, so that would reduce the number of filed tax returns.

[IRonMaN]

1.7 percent represents the number of folks that have been spending all of their time looking through the Epstein files and just haven't had time to do their tax returns yet.

[BobKamman]

IRS is sharing information with ICE, so even those who haven't been deported are reluctant to file returns.  They have three years to claim refunds  . . .

Has anyone seen the breakdown between self-prepared and paid practitioner?  It might just be that the pipeline is narrower because of fewer available professionals.  

[IRonMaN]

"because of fewer available professionals"

That seems to be the norm for all professions these days.

[BobKamman]

Researching my own question, I found this (data through week of February 28).  Self prepared is up; paid preparer is down. 

Total e-filing returns received (may not equal subtotals due to rounding)

51,209,000

50,873,000

-0.7

E-filing returns received from tax professionals

23,694,000

23,064,000

-2.7

E-filing returns received from self-prepared

27,515,000

27,809,000

1.1

[Skylane]

I’m hopeful that 20% of my clientele decide (for political reasons or otherwise) not to file (before 4/15 ) or go somewhere else… we’re officially past my ‘you’re on extension’ deadline.

[BobKamman]

@Skylane Go somewhere else for political reasons?  Well, they did just reduce the cost of giving up US citizenship to $450 . . .